Next fiscal’s export: EPB estimates below current target

Against the target for FY20, in 11 months (July-May) Bangladesh earned $30.96 billion, down by 18% from a year earlier

The Export promotion Bureau has proposed the commerce ministry to set the merchandise export target at $37.44 billion for the next fiscal year, beginning from Wednesday.

The target is much lower than current year’s target.

It, however, has estimated $32.99 billion export earnings for the current FY20.

For the outgoing fiscal year to end on Tuesday, the government had set export target at $44.5 billion from goods.

Against the target for FY20, in 11 months (July-May) Bangladesh earned $30.96 billion, down by 18% from a year earlier.

The EPB’s target is 13.45% higher than estimated earnings for the current fiscal year.

For the garment sector, the bureau estimated $27.27 billion. During the July-May period of the current FY20, the sector earned $25.90 billion.

“We have received a draft proposal from the EPB. After holding a meeting with the stakeholders, the commerce ministry will finally set the target considering the global economic recovery prospect in the post pandemic world,” Md. Abdur Rahim Khan, Joint Secretary of Commerce Ministry told Dhaka Tribune.

The meeting is likely to be held in the first week of next month.

Why the conservative target

“The EPB has proposed less than current year’s export target as the export earnings is going through sharp decline due to covid pandemic,” seeking anonymity a high official of the EPP said.

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO) data, world trade is expected to fall by between 13% and 32% in 2020 as the COVID 19 pandemic disrupts normal economic activity and life around the world.

What should be the export target?

“The current fiscal year will end with sharp negative growth in export earnings mostly in the garment sector. In attaining an over 13% growth, in the coming months the positive growth should be double compared to negative growth,” Centre for Policy Dialogue Research Director Khondaker Golam Moazzem said.

What the business people had thought about the reopening of economies in the export destinations did not happen, he said. The consumption would fall in the days to come as people’s income had shrunk, added the economist.

Besides, future business would also depend on the covid control. Unless it was over or there was a vaccine in the market, it would continue to devastate the economy, Moazzem alarmed.Report:DT